Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 10¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in the Mythos release question.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 10¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in the Mythos release question. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability, yet the asymmetric implied yields (821.2% on No vs. 58% on Yes) and elevated cliff risk index of 4 indicate significant pricing instability—likely reflecting the sparse liquidity rather than genuine market conviction. With 167 days to expiry and a recent 4¢ price decline over seven days, this appears to be a dead market that lacks sufficient participation to generate reliable probability estimates.
Resolution rules
If Anthropic releases A model called Mythos before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26OCT01 yes 100