Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing February 4, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 16¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 652.8% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction that 2026 U.S.-China imports will fall below $240 billion. Recent price movement from 18¢ to 16¢ over seven days suggests weak downward pressure, though with such minimal trading activity, this could simply reflect a single small transaction rather than meaningful sentiment shift.
Resolution rules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $240 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T240 yes 100