Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing February 4, 2027. This market is pricing in an 81% probability that 2026 U.S.-China goods imports will fall below $280 billion, but the extremely illiquid conditions ($0 24h volume, $93 open interest, 9¢ spread) make the price unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an 81% probability that 2026 U.S.-China goods imports will fall below $280 billion, but the extremely illiquid conditions ($0 24h volume, $93 open interest, 9¢ spread) make the price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The dramatic asymmetry in implied yields—43.7% for Yes versus 353.9% for No—signals severe mispricing or that traders are heavily skewed toward the Yes side, creating outsized returns for contrarian No positions if trade policy shifts away from restrictive measures. With 294 days to expiry and recent price weakness from 78¢ to 74¢, this market appears to be testing whether tariff escalation assumptions will hold through 2026, but the ghost-town liquidity makes it unsuitable for meaningful position-taking.
Resolution rules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $280 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T280 yes 100