Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing February 4, 2027. The market has priced in a 90% probability that 2026 U.S.-China goods imports will fall below $300 billion, yet this extreme confidence sits atop minimal liquidity with only $357 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, raising questions about price reliability.
Analysis
The market has priced in a 90% probability that 2026 U.S.-China goods imports will fall below $300 billion, yet this extreme confidence sits atop minimal liquidity with only $357 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, raising questions about price reliability. The asymmetric implied yields—25.5% for Yes versus 607% for No—suggest the No side is severely underpriced relative to the tail risk it represents, indicating potential mispricing in an illiquid market. Recent price movement from 90¢ to 83¢ over seven days shows some skepticism emerging, though the market still requires a dramatic 20%+ drop from recent import levels (~$380 billion annually) to resolve Yes.
Resolution rules
If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $300 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCNIMPORT-27FEB04-T300 yes 100