Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, o.... This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026.
██░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
5¢Bid/Ask 6/10¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $2,557·Closes Oct 1, 2026·162d remaining
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01
Resolution rules
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:22:46 PM
Observability mediumEvent type financial
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM
Trade
View on kalshi →
sf trade KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01 yes 100