Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in April 2026?

This market shows extreme volatility with the price collapsing 55% over seven days (from 59¢ to 26¢), suggesting a significant shift in inflation expectations or recent economic data release that dramatically reduced the probability of core CPI exceeding 2.7% year-over-year. The astronomical implied yield of 4468% on the Yes side reflects the distressed pricing of a deeply out-of-the-money contract with only 23 days to expiry, though the thin $107.71 daily volume and modest $4,517.97 open interest indicate low liquidity that could amplify price swings. With a Cliff Risk Index of 3 and neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a fundamental market dislocation, though the sharp recent repricing warrants monitoring for any upcoming CPI data that could trigger further movement before the May 12 resolution.

Resolution rules

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending April 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

Trade