Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in May 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in May 2026?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. This market is pricing in a 97% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.2% year-over-year by May 2026, yet shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $130 open interest, making the price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 97% probability that core CPI will exceed 2.2% year-over-year by May 2026, yet shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $130 open interest, making the price potentially unreliable. The No side's implied yield of 22,586% is a red flag indicating virtually no liquidity on that side and suggesting the 3¢ spread masks a much wider true bid-ask gap. The sharp 6-point rally from 91¢ to 97¢ over seven days, combined with the 52-day countdown to resolution and moderate cliff risk (32), suggests late-stage positioning by a small number of traders rather than genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.2 yes 100