Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in May 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in May 2026?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing June 10, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 69¢ to 42¢, suggesting a significant shift in inflation expectations or recent CPI data release that reduced the probability of core inflation exceeding 2.7% year-over-year by May 2026.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing over seven days, collapsing from 69¢ to 42¢, suggesting a significant shift in inflation expectations or recent CPI data release that reduced the probability of core inflation exceeding 2.7% year-over-year by May 2026. With zero 24-hour volume and only $955.25 open interest against a 9¢ spread, liquidity is critically thin, making the 1487% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk. The 52-day window to resolution and neutral regime score indicate the market is pricing in a genuine toss-up between disinflation continuing versus a reacceleration, though the sharp recent move favors the disinflationary scenario.
Resolution rules
If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.7% in the twelve months ending May 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXCPICOREYOY-26MAY-T2.7 yes 100