Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will 100 Thieves win map 1 in the BIG vs. 100 Thieves match?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 65¢ (65% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 16 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will 100 Thieves win map 1 in the BIG vs. 100 Thieves match?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8197.7% and 652.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will 100 Thieves win map 1 in the BIG vs. 100 Thieves match?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8197.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	652.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8198%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	7629%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.23	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	4.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Will 100 Thieves win map 1 in the BIG vs. 100 Thieves match?

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