Will ALKA win map 2 in the ALKA vs. 9z match
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$327
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 11, 2026
8 days
Bracket families
11 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will ex-RUBY win map
Cluster 2
Will AM Gaming win map
Cluster 3
Will RUSTEC win map
Cluster 4
Will ZOTIX win map
Cluster 5
Will Banger Gang win map
Cluster 6
Will QUAZAR win map
Cluster 7
Will ReThink win map
Cluster 8
Will Arch win map
Cluster 9
Will Fire Flux Esports win map
Will Fire Flux Esports win map 2 in the Arch vs. Fire Flux Esports match?: Fire Flux Esports
KXCS2MAP-26JUN051330ARCHFIRE-2-FIRE
Will Fire Flux Esports win map 1 in the Arch vs. Fire Flux Esports match?: Fire Flux Esports
KXCS2MAP-26JUN051330ARCHFIRE-1-FIRE
Cluster 10
Will against All authority win map 1 in the against All authority vs. G2 Ares match
Cluster 11
Will BIG Academy win map 2 in the BIG Academy vs. GenOne match
Will BIG Academy win map 2 in the BIG Academy vs. GenOne match?: BIG Academy
KXCS2MAP-26JUN051300BIGAG1-2-BIGA
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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