Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing March 31, 2029. This market is pricing an extremely high probability (99%) that U.S.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely high probability (99%) that U.S. national debt will reach $40 trillion by end-2028, with minimal liquidity ($9,623 open interest) and negligible 24-hour volume ($49) suggesting weak conviction despite the extreme price. The asymmetric implied yields—1.0% for Yes versus 1,096% for No—reveal a massive mispricing opportunity for contrarian bettors, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sudden repricing as the resolution window approaches over the next 1,077 days. The recent price movement from 95¢ to 97¢ shows modest upward drift, but the illiquid market structure means any meaningful bet could significantly move the price.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. federal debt increases to 40 trillion for any quarter in Q4 2024 to Q4 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-40 yes 100