Winner-take-all answer·2 source contracts·Kalshi 2·refreshed just now·Closes Mar 31, 2029 · 970d·↓14pp · 32h

Will student loans be forgiven?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 83% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

83%

$45 trillion

0¢runner-up 34¢leader 83¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

34¢

$50 trillion

Spread

49pp

contested

24h volume

$64

thin orderbook

Closes

Mar 31, 2029

970 days

Venue

Kalshi

2 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will the national debt hit $45 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $45 trillion83¢$19 Will the national debt hit $50 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $50 trillion34¢$46

30-day trend

$45 trillion83¢$50 trillion33¢

Top 2 candidates by current price · 25d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the national debt hit $

2 contracts$64

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the national debt hit $50 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $50 trillion

KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-50

34¢±0$46K→

Will the national debt hit $45 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $45 trillion

KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-45

83¢±0$19K→

What moved the line

Jul 31$50 trillion↑14pp18→32¢ · Kalshi
Jul 29$50 trillion↓3pp22→19¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in legislation

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Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 58d
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (83% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

In legislation

Will AI be regulated?18%Will Bill Hill qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Alaska top-four primary72%Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Sep 1, 2026lead 28%How many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in April?: 4lead 47%Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 202631%Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027lead 76%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.

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