Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This illiquid market ($75 open interest, $0 24h volume) is pricing a 77% probability that German Q1 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.2% QoQ, yet the extreme implied yields (1409% for Yes, 5309% for No) and wide 10¢ spread signal thin liquidity and pricing uncertainty rather than conviction.
Analysis
This illiquid market ($75 open interest, $0 24h volume) is pricing a 77% probability that German Q1 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.2% QoQ, yet the extreme implied yields (1409% for Yes, 5309% for No) and wide 10¢ spread signal thin liquidity and pricing uncertainty rather than conviction. The market has declined 10¢ over seven days (76¢ to 66¢), suggesting modest deterioration in growth expectations, though with only 13 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 2, the outcome hinges heavily on the imminent flash estimate release.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.2 yes 100