Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 732% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 732% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment. The 15¢ spread and dramatic cliff risk index of 4 suggest severe pricing dysfunction, likely reflecting that no traders are actively engaged with this contract just 13 days before expiry. The 7-day price decline from 83¢ to 0¢ indicates either a sharp shift in German economic expectations or, more plausibly, a liquidity collapse that has left the market stranded at an artificial extreme with no mechanism for price discovery.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.5 yes 100