Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 65,835% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 65,835% implied yield on the Yes side. The 14¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price level, and the sharp 7-day decline from 11¢ to 4¢ suggests either deteriorating sentiment on German growth prospects or thin-market price manipulation. With only 13 days until expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, traders should be cautious about the resolution mechanics, as the market appears to be pricing in very low probability of Germany exceeding 0.9% YoY GDP growth in Q1 2026.
Resolution rules
If Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.9 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDEGDPYOYF-26APR30-T0.9 yes 100