What will Apple Inc. say during their next earnings call?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that What will Apple Inc. say during their next earnings call?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing September 30, 2026. This market shows classic signs of illiquidity dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 163-day runway to Apple's next earnings call.
Analysis
This market shows classic signs of illiquidity dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a 163-day runway to Apple's next earnings call. The 0¢ Yes price paired with an extreme 1090% implied yield on the No side and a massive 545% risk-adjusted yield suggests the market has collapsed into a corner with no active participants willing to trade at these prices. The 7¢ spread and modest 82-83¢ price movement over seven days indicate this is a dead market rather than a genuine pricing signal about whether Apple will mention "Manufacturing" on their call.
Resolution rules
If Manufacturing is said by any Apple Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next Apple Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEARNINGSMENTIONAAPL-26APR30-MANU yes 100