CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that CPI month-over-month in Sep 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing October 14, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely deflationary scenario—a precise -0.1% month-over-month CPI reading—at just 9¢, which translates to a staggering 2,072% implied yield for a Yes position.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely unlikely deflationary scenario—a precise -0.1% month-over-month CPI reading—at just 9¢, which translates to a staggering 2,072% implied yield for a Yes position. The near-zero liquidity ($1 open interest, $0 volume) and wide bid-ask spread make this essentially illiquid, raising questions about whether the price reflects genuine market conviction or simply a lack of trading activity. With 178 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 10 (maximum), this is a highly speculative tail-risk bet where the extreme yield reflects both the low probability and the difficulty in executing any position.
Resolution rules
If the CPI month-over-month is exactly -0.1% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXECONSTATCPI-26SEP-T-0.1 yes 100