Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 10%?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBE.... This contract trades at 52¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,688 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 50¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,688 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 50¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 1¢ spread. The astronomical implied yields (2599% for Yes, 2815% for No) reflect the minimal capital at risk rather than genuine probability assessment, and the 97% realized volatility combined with a sharp 24-point price drop over seven days suggests significant uncertainty or model recalibration rather than fundamental conviction. With just 13 days to expiry and Q1 2026 data not yet released, this market is pricing in substantial tail risk around tariff policy implementation, but the negligible liquidity makes it unsuitable for meaningful position-taking.
Resolution rules
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T10 yes 100