Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 be above 15%?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBE.... This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $188 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $188 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 12¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 7¢ spread. The astronomical implied yield of 19,914% on the Yes side signals either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in near-zero probability of US tariff rates exceeding 15% in Q1 2026, which would require a dramatic increase from historical norms (effective rates typically range 2-4%). With just 13 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 7, this market is approaching expiry with minimal trading activity, suggesting low confidence in either outcome or insufficient market interest.
Resolution rules
If the US effective tariff rate (customs duties collected ÷ nominal imports of goods, represented by B235RC1Q027SBEA ÷ A255RC1Q027SBEA) for Q1 2026 is above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEFFTARIFF-26APR30-T15 yes 100