Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 25,882% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting traders are severely underestimating the probability of a Venezuelan election within 46 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 25,882% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting traders are severely underestimating the probability of a Venezuelan election within 46 days. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18,025 open interest and a wide 2¢ spread indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to sharp reversals if new information emerges. With a Cliff Risk Index of 32 and expiration just 1.5 months away, this contract carries significant tail risk and may be mispriced due to illiquidity rather than genuine market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Venezuela holds a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXELECTVENEZUELA-26JUN01 yes 100