Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026
Leader sits at 23% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 1, 2027
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Before Jan 1, 2027
Spread
20pp
contested
24h volume
$17
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
250 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before J
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Venezuela will hold a presidential election before June 1, 2027—a span of roughly 12 months from now. At 45%, it indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the government will proceed with scheduled elections or delay them. Key factors driving this level include the political instability following Venezuela's disputed 2024 elections, international pressure for democratic processes, and the government's recent track record of postponing or heavily controlling electoral timelines. The most immediate catalyst is whether the National Electoral Council announces a confirmed date and begins logistical preparations in the coming months. Market pricing reflects genuine doubt: shorter timeframes like September 2026 trade much lower (3¢), suggesting traders view imminent elections as unlikely, while the January 2027 outcome at 12¢ indicates the window is being priced as moderately unlikely even with more time.
- ›The Venezuelan government's demonstrated willingness to delay or postpone elections since the contested 2024 presidential vote, versus international pressure and opposition demands for timely electoral processes
- ›Confirmation or announcement by Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) of specific election dates and administrative preparations, which would be a concrete signal of intent to proceed
- ›Economic and security conditions within Venezuela that could either trigger government decisions to hold elections or create instability that leads to postponement
- ›The degree of international observation and pressure from regional organizations and foreign governments, which may influence the timeline
- ›Recent statements or policy signals from Venezuelan government leadership regarding their electoral calendar and intentions for 2026-2027
What moved the line
- Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (23% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.