Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Sep 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Sep 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market is pricing an extremely low 16% probability of a Venezuelan presidential election by September 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1776% implied yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand despite modest $2.2k daily volume.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 16% probability of a Venezuelan presidential election by September 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1776% implied yield, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand despite modest $2.2k daily volume. The 7-day price decline from 9¢ to 13¢ and elevated realized volatility of 1192% indicate recent bearish sentiment, though the 4¢ spread and $28k open interest remain relatively tight for such a volatile contract approaching its 138-day expiry. The high cliff risk index of 7 and 2.79 volatility ratio warn that resolution could hinge on discrete political events in Venezuela rather than gradual probability shifts.
Resolution rules
If Venezuela holds a presidential election before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXELECTVENEZUELA-26SEP01 yes 100