What is the current probability for "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45.3% and 454.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in an 86% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at emergency meetings throughout 2026, with the price climbing 10 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in this outcome.

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85¢

Bid/Ask 76/87¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $11.63·OI $75,970.3·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXEMERCUTS-26-T0

7-day price190 snapshots · 25 regime

90¢76¢ current

Apr 872¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market is pricing in an 86% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at emergency meetings throughout 2026, with the price climbing 10 cents over the past week, suggesting growing confidence in this outcome. However, the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—865% on the "No" side versus 23% on the "Yes" side—combined with a 228% realized volatility and 4.62 vol ratio indicates significant tail-risk pricing for an emergency rate cut scenario, likely reflecting tail hedging demand. The modest $121 daily volume and $77k open interest suggest thin liquidity despite the tight 2¢ spread, so large position entries could move the price meaningfully before the 259-day expiry.

Resolution rules

If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45.3%

IY (No) 454.4%

Adj IY 454%

CRI 3

RV 649%

VR 10.20

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	454.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	454%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	649%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	10.20	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	6.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.577

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:07 PM

SF edge 11.0¢ noObservability highEvent type data_release

Edges (1)

NO +11¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEMERCUTS-26-T0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →