Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing September 14, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable. The extreme 1699% implied yield on the Yes side suggests either a mispriced long-shot bet or minimal market confidence in price discovery. With 516 days until expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, there's substantial time for conditions to change, but the negligible liquidity means any actual trade could move the price dramatically.
Resolution rules
If Tie has won Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-TIE yes 100