Will Nick Offerman win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$300
4 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
446 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will David Harbour win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: David Harbour
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-DAV
Cluster 2
Will Charles Melton win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Charles Melton win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Charles Melton
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-CHA
Cluster 3
Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Richard Gadd win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Richard Gadd
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-RICH
Cluster 4
Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Movie/Limited Supporting Actor at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYLSACTO-26SEP14-TIE
Analysis
This market reflects a 17% probability that Nick Offerman wins the Emmy Award for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Movie or Limited Series. Offerman's chances depend primarily on the strength of his competition and whether his recent work qualifies for Emmy eligibility in the relevant year. The prediction reflects relatively low odds compared to other contenders, suggesting either limited major film or limited series roles in the eligible period, or stronger performances from competing actors. The Emmy Awards ceremony, typically held in September, will definitively resolve this question. Between now and then, the release and reception of Offerman's eligible projects could shift probabilities upward if his performances gain critical recognition or industry momentum.
- ›Nick Offerman's eligible film and limited series projects for the Emmy year and their industry visibility
- ›Strength and recognition of competing nominees in the Movie/Limited Supporting Actor category
- ›Critical reception and awards circuit performance (precursor ceremonies like Golden Globes or SAG Awards) of Offerman's work
- ›The specific Emmy eligibility period and which of Offerman's recent projects qualify for consideration
- ›Historical voting patterns for this category and Offerman's previous Emmy nomination track record
What moved the line
- Jun 23David Harbour↓9pp35→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25David Harbour↓6pp26→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Charles Melton↑5pp41→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20David Harbour↑3pp33→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Charles Melton↓3pp41→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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