Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.9%?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and astronomical 100,000% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and astronomical 100,000% implied yield unreliable indicators of true market sentiment. The 15¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and with only 10 days to expiry, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish a meaningful consensus on whether Spain's Q1 2026 QoQ GDP growth will exceed 0.9%. The recent price decline from 4¢ to 3¢ combined with the high cliff risk index (32) suggests this is a thin, potentially mispriced market where any trade could dramatically move prices.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.9 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.9 yes 100