Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 68% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?. This contract trades at 68¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-cent to 60-cent price movement over seven days, suggesting minimal real trading activity and unreliable pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-cent to 60-cent price movement over seven days, suggesting minimal real trading activity and unreliable pricing. The current 0¢ price implies zero probability yet carries a 1834.5% implied yield on the Yes side, a mathematical inconsistency indicating the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. With only 13 days until expiry and resolution dependent on Spain's Q1 2026 GDP flash estimate (typically released in late April), this appears to be a thin, speculative contract where the extreme yields reflect pricing dysfunction rather than genuine market conviction.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 2.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T2.2 yes 100