Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 3.6%?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 100,000% implied yield on Yes completely unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme pricing dysfunction with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price and 100,000% implied yield on Yes completely unreliable. The 9¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the contract value, and with only 11 days to expiry and no trading activity, this appears to be a dead or abandoned market that lacks sufficient liquidity for meaningful analysis. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price movement suggest the market has stalled rather than reflecting genuine conviction that Spain's Q1 2026 YoY GDP growth will fall at or below 3.6%.
Resolution rules
If Spain GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 is above 3.6 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXESGDPYOYF-26APR30-T3.6 yes 100