Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing only a 12% probability that Ethereum falls below $750 over the next 259 days, despite extreme realized volatility of 1126% and a notably asymmetric risk-adjusted yield of 942% on the Yes side versus 21% on the No side.
Analysis
The market is pricing only a 12% probability that Ethereum falls below $750 over the next 259 days, despite extreme realized volatility of 1126% and a notably asymmetric risk-adjusted yield of 942% on the Yes side versus 21% on the No side. The sharp recent decline from 17¢ to 13¢ over seven days, combined with very thin liquidity ($20 daily volume, $14,770 open interest), suggests this low-probability tail event may be mispriced or subject to liquidity constraints rather than genuine conviction. The high cliff risk index of 7 and elevated information arrival rate of 2.3/hour indicate potential for rapid repricing, making this market particularly sensitive to major Ethereum price movements or macro regime shifts.
Resolution rules
If the spot price of Ethereum in U.S. dollars is below 750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHMINY-27JAN01-750 yes 100