Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Leader sits at 23% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $1,500.00
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Below $1,250.00
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
130 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ethereum reach below $
Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,500.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1500
Will Ethereum reach below $1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,250.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1250
Will Ethereum reach below $1000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,000.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1000
Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $750.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-750
Analysis
This market estimates a 57% probability that Ethereum will fall below $1,500 by January 1, 2027—roughly 5.5 months away. The probability reflects expectations about cryptocurrency volatility and macroeconomic conditions over the second half of 2026. Factors driving the current level include recent Ethereum price action, broader crypto market sentiment, and anticipated regulatory developments. The price currently trades around $2,500–$3,000 range depending on market conditions, meaning this outcome requires meaningful depreciation. Resolution hinges primarily on sustained market movements rather than a single catalyst, though major developments in Bitcoin's trajectory, Federal Reserve policy shifts, or significant regulatory announcements could shift probabilities substantially. Notably, the $1,500 contract shows higher conviction (61¢) than the $750 level (8¢), suggesting markets view moderate downside as more likely than severe collapse.
- ›Current Ethereum spot price relative to $1,500 threshold and historical volatility patterns in crypto markets
- ›Correlation with Bitcoin price movements and broader risk-asset sentiment in equity and commodity markets
- ›Federal Reserve monetary policy trajectory and interest rate expectations through end of 2026
- ›Regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency trading, custody, or institutional adoption in major jurisdictions
- ›Volume concentration: the $750 contract shows $1,079 in 24h volume while higher-bound contracts show minimal activity, indicating market focus on moderate price scenarios
What moved the line
- Aug 19Below $1,500.00↓10pp48→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Below $1,500.00↓9pp38→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Below $1,500.00↓6pp29→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Below $1,250.00↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Below $1,250.00↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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