Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET
Leader sits at 78% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Below $1,500.00
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Below $1,250.00
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
196 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ethereum reach below $
Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,500.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1500
Will Ethereum reach below $1000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,000.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1000
Will Ethereum reach below $1250.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $1,250.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-1250
Will Ethereum reach below $750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?: Below $750.00
KXETHMINY-27JAN01-750
Analysis
This market estimates a 29% chance that Ethereum's price will fall below $750 by year-end 2026, about eight months from now. The probability reflects traders' assessment that such a severe decline—roughly 60% down from current levels—is unlikely but possible. Major factors influencing this view include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory developments around cryptocurrency, and Ethereum's technical fundamentals. The broader crypto market direction, particularly Bitcoin's performance, typically correlates with Ethereum movements. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include major regulatory announcements, significant network disruptions, substantial shifts in institutional adoption, or broad equity market stress that triggers a flight from risk assets. The low trading volume on this specific contract ($924 in 24 hours) suggests limited conviction among traders at current prices.
- ›Ethereum's current price relative to $750 represents a ~60% decline threshold; current market price and recent volatility trends directly affect probability estimates
- ›Bitcoin's price trajectory typically leads Ethereum movements; the 52¢ price on Bitcoin below $60k by year-end suggests moderate tail-risk pricing across crypto assets
- ›Related Ethereum contracts show traders pricing a 35¢ probability for below $1,250 by year-end, indicating a distribution of downside scenarios across different price levels
- ›Macro conditions including inflation data, interest rate decisions, and equity market performance between May 2026 and January 2027 will substantially influence risk-asset demand
- ›Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions against Ethereum or major exchanges could rapidly shift market expectations for extreme downside scenarios
What moved the line
- Jun 15Below $1,500.00↓11pp80→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Below $1,500.00↓7pp86→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Below $1,250.00↓6pp58→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Below $1,000.00↓5pp30→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Below $1,500.00↑4pp71→75¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in bitcoin
- US Trade Deficit in 2026?: 600–700Blast 33% · 0d
- Bitcoin all time high by ___last 7% · 0d
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000last 72% · 0d
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 120,000last 86% · 0d
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k?: by December 31, 2026last 6% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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