ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—ETH trading between $1,000-$1,249.99 on Jan 1, 2027—at just 5¢ with a staggering 2,675% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders view this price range as nearly impossible given ETH's current levels.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—ETH trading between $1,000-$1,249.99 on Jan 1, 2027—at just 5¢ with a staggering 2,675% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders view this price range as nearly impossible given ETH's current levels. The 7-day price decline from 7¢ to 5¢ combined with low 24-hour volume of $1,620 and modest open interest of $28,496.80 indicates thin liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the moderate spread of 1¢ provides some trading flexibility. With 259 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this contract carries meaningful tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate market stress is driving the extreme pricing.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 1000.00-1249.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1125 yes 100