ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% probability on a narrow $2,000-$2,250 ETH price band, generating an implausible 1,619% annualized yield for a nearly 9-month position.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8% probability on a narrow $2,000-$2,250 ETH price band, generating an implausible 1,619% annualized yield for a nearly 9-month position. The 20-cent price drop over 7 days combined with modest $2,051 daily volume and $49.7k open interest suggests thin liquidity is driving the distortion, particularly given the 1-cent spread represents only 12.5% of the current price. With 259 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a classic low-liquidity mispricing rather than a genuine market signal about ETH's likelihood of trading in that specific range.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 2000.00-2249.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B2125 yes 100