Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1%?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 13¢ spread and only 10 days to expiry, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 13¢ spread and only 10 days to expiry, suggesting the 0¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a stale quote. The astronomical implied yields (717% for Yes, 17,100% for No) are artifacts of the near-zero pricing and lack of trading activity rather than meaningful probability signals. With the resolution date imminent on 4/30/2026 and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this market appears abandoned and unreliable for prediction purposes.
Resolution rules
If Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above -0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T-0.1 yes 100