Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?
Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.1%?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0% price and 9¢ spread unreliable indicators of true probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0% price and 9¢ spread unreliable indicators of true probability. The astronomical implied yields (2156.9% for Yes, 3493.9% for No) reflect the near-total absence of trading activity rather than genuine market consensus, and with only 13 days until expiry and resolution data likely imminent, any position carries significant cliff risk. The flat 7-day price action at 56¢ suggests this market may be inactive or mispriced, warranting caution before treating the current quote as a meaningful forecast for Q1 2026 Euro area GDP growth.
Resolution rules
If Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.1 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.1 yes 100