Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 16¢ spread and astronomical implied yields (5062.8% on Yes), suggesting the 0% price may be a stale quote rather than genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 16¢ spread and astronomical implied yields (5062.8% on Yes), suggesting the 0% price may be a stale quote rather than genuine market consensus. With only 13 days to expiration and the resolution criteria incomplete in the provided text, the market appears either broken or abandoned, making any position highly risky given the potential for sharp repricing once actual trading resumes. The modest 1¢ price decline over seven days offers no meaningful signal given the zero liquidity environment.
Resolution rules
If Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 is above 0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEZGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.2 yes 100