Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?
Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market pricing exactly one rate change before 2027 at just 33¢ shows extreme disconnect between the Yes and No sides, with Yes offering a 400.8% annualized yield versus 49.5% for No.
Analysis
This illiquid market pricing exactly one rate change before 2027 at just 33¢ shows extreme disconnect between the Yes and No sides, with Yes offering a 400.8% annualized yield versus 49.5% for No. The $268 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal conviction, while the 8¢ spread and flat 7-day price action indicate the market is essentially frozen with few traders willing to take either side. Given the Federal Reserve's current stance and economic uncertainty, the asymmetric yield structure suggests sophisticated traders may be avoiding this binary outcome entirely.
Resolution rules
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E1 yes 100