Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0
Leader sits at 35% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 31%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 1
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
31¢
Exactly 0
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$5
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
189 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?: Exactly 2
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E2
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?: Exactly 1
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E1
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0?: Exactly 0
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E0
Analysis
This contract asks whether the Federal Reserve will make zero interest rate changes between now and the end of 2026. The 23% probability reflects market expectations that the Fed will adjust rates at least once in the next seven months. The primary driver is the current inflation and employment environment. If inflation remains elevated or labor markets weaken unexpectedly, the Fed would be more likely to move rates, pushing this probability lower. Conversely, if inflation moderates toward the 2% target while employment stays resilient, a no-change scenario becomes more plausible. The Federal Reserve's policy meetings—particularly those in June and September 2026—and monthly inflation data releases (CPI reports) will provide critical signals that market participants will use to adjust expectations. Each major economic data point could shift this probability meaningfully as traders reassess the path of monetary policy.
- ›Current Fed funds rate level and inflation readings as of late April 2026 relative to the Fed's 2% target
- ›Employment data from monthly BLS releases, specifically whether unemployment remains below historical averages or begins to rise
- ›PCE and CPI inflation data published through end of 2026, particularly whether year-over-year measures sustain above or move below 2.5%
- ›Scheduled FOMC meeting dates in June, September, and December 2026, which are the windows where policy decisions occur
- ›Market pricing in fed funds futures contracts for specific meeting dates, which typically leads spot market probability adjustments
What moved the line
- Jun 23Exactly 1↓6pp38→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Exactly 0↓4pp32→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
- US GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <1.0%last 62% · 1d
- Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%last 62% · 1d
- South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 2.5%+last 62% · 1d
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 34% · 1d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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