Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 0
Leader sits at 53% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Exactly 2
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
Exactly 3
Spread
27pp
contested
24h volume
$354
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
102 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?: Exactly 2
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E2
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3?: Exactly 3
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E3
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1?: Exactly 1
KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E1
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026, currently priced at 37%. With less than six months remaining in the year, the probability reflects expectations about the Fed's reaction to inflation data, employment conditions, and economic growth. The market is pricing in a roughly two-thirds chance of at least one rate change before year-end. The primary drivers are upcoming inflation reports (CPI/PCE) scheduled through November and the Fed's remaining policy meetings in July, September, November, and December. Strong inflation readings would increase pressure for rate hikes; weaker data or economic slowdown signals could support holding steady. The July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, occurring in early weeks, will be a critical catalyst for establishing the Fed's near-term trajectory.
- ›Inflation data releases (CPI/PCE) between now and December will directly influence Fed decision-making at remaining four scheduled meetings
- ›Current market pricing implies 63% probability of at least one rate change, suggesting most traders expect the Fed to move before year-end
- ›Employment indicators and labor market strength over the next five months will be weighed alongside price pressures in Fed deliberations
- ›The 37% probability for exactly zero changes is the leading outcome but faces stiff competition from one-change scenarios (31%) and two-change scenarios (20%)
- ›Fed communication and forward guidance at July meeting will provide clarity on policymakers' inflation assessment and trigger immediate repricing
What moved the line
- Sep 17Exactly 2↑35pp32→67¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Exactly 1↓21pp33→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Exactly 3↑18pp4→22¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Exactly 2↓12pp66→54¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Exactly 3↑3pp22→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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