Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?
Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $93 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $93 open interest, making the 26¢ price potentially unreliable. The 400.8% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine conviction that exactly 2 rate changes will occur before year-end 2026. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders should be cautious about the tight 1¢ spread masking the underlying illiquidity risk.
Resolution rules
If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDCHGCOUNT-27JAN01-E2 yes 100