Will Kevin Warsh be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will Kevin Warsh be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. The market prices Kevin Warsh at 69% to lead the FOMC by mid-June 2026, but the extreme yield asymmetry—319% for Yes versus 1101% for No—signals heavy skew toward the No side despite the higher nominal probability, suggesting sophisticated traders see meaningful tail risk of his non-appointment.
Analysis
The market prices Kevin Warsh at 69% to lead the FOMC by mid-June 2026, but the extreme yield asymmetry—319% for Yes versus 1101% for No—signals heavy skew toward the No side despite the higher nominal probability, suggesting sophisticated traders see meaningful tail risk of his non-appointment. With only 62 days to expiry, $15.7K open interest, and thin $654 daily volume, liquidity is notably sparse for a high-stakes political appointment market, and the recent 12-point rally from 57¢ combined with 193% realized volatility indicates this contract remains highly sensitive to news flow around Fed leadership confirmation.
Resolution rules
If Kevin Warsh officially holds the position of Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXFEDLEADJUNE-26JUN17-KWAR yes 100