Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,261 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and potential difficulty executing positions at the quoted 13¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a $1,261 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and potential difficulty executing positions at the quoted 13¢ price. The 1,472% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, while the 683% realized volatility and 8/10 cliff risk index indicate this contract experiences sharp, unpredictable price swings. With 201 days to expiration and a modest recent decline from 12¢ to 11¢, this appears to be a speculative micro-market with limited information flow (0.5 arrivals per hour) where the extreme yield metrics should be treated cautiously.
Resolution rules
If Madison Cawthorn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 FL-19 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFL19R-26-MCAW yes 100