Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Ola Hawatmeh be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme asymmetry with near-zero trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $11.15, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme asymmetry with near-zero trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) and minimal open interest of just $11.15, making the 11¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 2092% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine probability assessment, while the 8¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty. With 201 days to resolution and a moderate cliff risk score of 12, this market lacks sufficient depth for confident directional positioning.
Resolution rules
If Ola Hawatmeh wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 FL-19 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFL19R-26-OHAW yes 100