Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing May 30, 2028. Édouard Philippe is priced at a modest 23¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($4,707 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), making this contract highly illiquid and vulnerable to wide bid-ask spreads despite the quoted 4¢ spread.
Analysis
Édouard Philippe is priced at a modest 23¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($4,707 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), making this contract highly illiquid and vulnerable to wide bid-ask spreads despite the quoted 4¢ spread. The Yes side shows an outsized 188.5% implied yield compared to just 11.8% for No, suggesting either strong conviction among remaining holders or potential mispricing due to the lack of trading activity. The contract has declined 4 cents over the past week (from 24¢ to 20¢) with 775 days to expiration, indicating modest bearish sentiment, though the low volume makes it difficult to assess whether this represents genuine market conviction or merely illiquid price discovery.
Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If Édouard Philippe wins the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRENCHPRES-27-EPHI yes 100