Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$345
5 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2028
645 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?: Jordan Bardella
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JBAR
Cluster 2
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?: Marine Le Pen
KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP
Cluster 3
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JMEL
Cluster 4
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?: Édouard Philippe
KXFRENCHPRES-27-EPHI
Cluster 5
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?: François Hollande
KXFRENCHPRES-27-FHOL
Analysis
Marine Le Pen is assigned a 14% probability of winning the 2027 French presidential election, meaning betting markets view her as an underdog despite her National Rally party's recent electoral gains. This probability reflects legal and institutional constraints: Le Pen faces an ongoing conviction that could result in a five-year political ineligibility, which would bar her candidacy entirely. The key tension is that her party colleague Jordan Bardella (30% probability) emerges as the stronger contender, suggesting markets expect either Le Pen's disqualification or strategic party preference for a younger candidate without legal encumbrances. Upcoming judicial decisions on her eligibility, combined with National Rally internal positioning decisions expected over the next 12 months, will substantially shift these probabilities. The election itself occurs in April 2027.
- ›Le Pen's conviction status and appeals process—a formal ban would reduce her probability toward zero, while exoneration could push it substantially higher
- ›Relative viability of Jordan Bardella as National Rally nominee—if party leadership backs Bardella instead, Le Pen's path narrows considerably
- ›Performance of center-right Republicans (Édouard Philippe at 22%) and left-wing coalitions in intermediate legislative and regional contests between now and April 2027
- ›French voter turnout and coalition-building dynamics, which historically influence second-round runoff outcomes and frontrunner viability
- ›Policy or scandal developments that shift National Rally's electoral positioning or voter base composition
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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