Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
5 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2028
705 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?: Édouard Philippe
KXFRENCHPRES-27-EPHI
Cluster 2
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?: Jordan Bardella
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JBAR
Cluster 3
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?: Gabriel Attal
KXFRENCHPRES-27-GATT
Cluster 4
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
KXFRENCHPRES-27-JMEL
Cluster 5
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?: Marine Le Pen
KXFRENCHPRES-27-MLEP
Analysis
This 10% probability suggests Marine Le Pen has a one-in-ten chance of winning France's 2027 presidential election. The National Rally (Rassemblement National) has grown as a political force in recent years, but Le Pen faces structural barriers including potential legal impediments, opposition from other right-wing and centrist parties in runoff scenarios, and historical patterns where anti-establishment movements struggle in final rounds. The main factors driving this low probability assessment are concerns about her electability in head-to-head matchups and coalition-building challenges. The election will occur in April 2027, with primary voting and campaign dynamics between now and then serving as the critical period to monitor shifts in this probability.
- ›Marine Le Pen's 2022 election loss by 17 percentage points to Macron in the second round despite strong first-round performance
- ›Legal proceedings and potential voting ineligibility could alter her candidacy status before 2027
- ›Fragmentation of the French right-wing vote across multiple candidates historically prevents single candidate dominance
- ›First-round polling trends through 2026-2027 will indicate whether National Rally support has structurally increased or remains concentrated in specific demographics
- ›Macron's presidency performance, economic conditions, and any major crises between now and April 2027 significantly influence anti-incumbent sentiment
What moved the line
- Jun 25Édouard Philippe↑7pp15→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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