Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?
Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.5%?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a massive 7-cent spread despite a dramatic 83-cent price surge over seven days, suggesting potential data errors or a broken market.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with zero liquidity ($0 volume and open interest) and a massive 7-cent spread despite a dramatic 83-cent price surge over seven days, suggesting potential data errors or a broken market. The 0% current price contradicts the recent rally to 92 cents, indicating severe pricing dysfunction rather than genuine conviction that French Q1 2026 GDP will contract by 0.5% or more. With only 13 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this market appears unreliable for analysis and should be avoided until liquidity normalizes.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 is above -0.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T-0.5 yes 100