Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely pessimistic scenario for French economic growth with only 10% implied probability of exceeding 0.2% QoQ, yet the astronomical 31,920% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity distortion given the $222 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely pessimistic scenario for French economic growth with only 10% implied probability of exceeding 0.2% QoQ, yet the astronomical 31,920% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity distortion given the $222 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 12-point Cliff Risk Index and wide 10¢ spread indicate low confidence in price discovery, while the recent uptick from 6¢ to 8¢ over seven days may reflect genuine deterioration in French growth expectations or simply thin-market noise ahead of the April 30 expiration. With only 13 days to resolution and preliminary GDP data typically released within weeks of quarter-end, this market is approaching a hard deadline where the extreme yield premium will likely collapse once actual data emerges.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 is above 0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T0.2 yes 100