Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market is pricing in an extremely bearish outlook for French Q1 2026 GDP growth, with only a 4% probability of exceeding 0.3% QoQ—well below France's recent historical average of around 0.5%.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an extremely bearish outlook for French Q1 2026 GDP growth, with only a 4% probability of exceeding 0.3% QoQ—well below France's recent historical average of around 0.5%. The 10¢ spread combined with just $15 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggests severe illiquidity, making the 89,746% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical and unreliable as a true opportunity. With only 13 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, the market carries substantial execution risk, though the stable 3¢ price over seven days indicates no recent conviction shift despite the extreme pricing.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 is above 0.3 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPQOQP-26APR30-T0.3 yes 100