Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 1.2%?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $16 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $16 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable. The absurdly high implied yield of 24,981% on the Yes side signals a severe mispricing likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine market conviction. With just 13 days to expiry and a 9¢ spread, this contract is essentially illiquid and should be approached with caution—the sharp 7-point price movement from 3¢ to 10¢ may reflect a single small trade rather than meaningful sentiment shift.
Resolution rules
If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above 1.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T1.2 yes 100