Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor general election election in the first round?

This market is pricing in an 85% probability that Georgia's 2026 Lieutenant Governor race will be decided in the first round, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (14.2% for Yes vs. 294% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 86% suggest significant uncertainty despite the high price. With only $869 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is critically thin, making the 85¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to sharp moves from even modest order flow. The 566-day timeframe provides ample time for political developments to shift expectations, though the neutral regime and modest 7-day decline from 83¢ indicate the market hasn't yet priced in major new information about candidate viability or Georgia's electoral dynamics.

Resolution rules

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade