Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election election in the first round?
Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election election in the first round?. This contract trades at 83¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely high probability (79%) that Georgia's 2026 Senate race will be decided in the first round without a runoff, yet the asymmetric implied yields—14.2% for Yes versus 294% for No—suggest significant uncertainty despite the lopsided price.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely high probability (79%) that Georgia's 2026 Senate race will be decided in the first round without a runoff, yet the asymmetric implied yields—14.2% for Yes versus 294% for No—suggest significant uncertainty despite the lopsided price. With zero 24-hour volume and only $1,531 in open interest, liquidity is critically thin, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to sharp moves on even modest order flow. The 566-day timeframe to expiry provides ample opportunity for market repricing as the election approaches and candidate dynamics become clearer.
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SEN yes 100