Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State general election election in the first round?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State general election election in the first round?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market is pricing in an 84% probability that Georgia's 2026 Secretary of State race will be decided in the first round, but the extremely thin liquidity ($15 open interest, $0 in 24-hour volume) and wide 6¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an 84% probability that Georgia's 2026 Secretary of State race will be decided in the first round, but the extremely thin liquidity ($15 open interest, $0 in 24-hour volume) and wide 6¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect genuine conviction. The asymmetric implied yields—18.2% for Yes versus 228.8% for No—indicate the No side is dramatically underpriced relative to its risk, a classic sign of illiquidity rather than informed disagreement about runoff likelihood. With over 18 months until expiration, the market has ample time to develop depth, but current conditions make this price unreliable for serious trading.
Resolution rules
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State general election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGA1ROUND-26NOV03-SOS yes 100